We may have flattened the curve of Covid-19 in Nigeria and perhaps in other countries in the African region, but emerging facts from elsewhere show that new variants of the virus have significantly increased Covid-19 cases and deaths in the past few weeks.
Covid-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update Data as received by WHO from national authorities, as of Sunday, 11 April 2021, shows that new Covid-19 cases rose for a seventh consecutive week, with over 4.5 million new cases reported in the last two weeks.
As at last week, the number of new deaths also increased for the fourth consecutive week by 7% compared to week before, with over 76 000 new deaths reported. The largest increases in case incidence were observed in the South-East Asia (most notably in India) and the Eastern Mediterranean regions.
New Cases & Deaths
According to WHO, all regions, except for the African Region and the Americas, reported increases in the number of deaths, with the largest increase of 189% from the Western Pacific Region, followed by 47% in South-East Asia. The highest numbers of new cases were reported from India (873 296 new cases; 70% increase), the United States of America (468 395 new cases; 5% increase), Brazil (463 092 new cases; 8% decrease), Turkey (353 281 new cases; 33% increase), and France (265 444 new cases; 9% increase).
Variants
As with any virus, Covid-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 over time can replicate or make copies of itself. Like our people will wont to emphasize, ‘If it is not original, it can never be original’; Replicated virus sometimes may be over potent or under potent. When a virus replicates or makes copies of itself, it changes a little bit from its original form. These changes are called “mutations”. A virus with one or more new mutations is referred to as a “variant” of the original virus. According to medical reports, viruses constantly change through mutation. And this has resulted into emergence of multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 globally throughout this pandemic.
Currently, there are two major genetic variants of Covid 19:
- Variants of Interest (VOI)
- Variants of Concern (VOC)
The new variants are highly transmissible. Medical reports say that SARS-CoV-2 lineage originally detected in the United Kingdom (UK), for example, has spread to other parts of Europe and the United States (US).
According to the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (eCDC), while it is known and expected that viruses constantly change through mutation leading to the emergence of new variants, preliminary analysis in the UK suggests that the variant (originally detected in UK) is significantly more transmissible than previously circulating variants
Possible Attributes of VOI
- Variants of Interest, according to WHO, is a variant with specific genetic markers that have been associated with changes to receptor binding; reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination; reduced efficacy of treatments and potential diagnostic impact; increased proportion of cases or unique outbreak clusters; predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.
Possible Attributes of VOC
- In addition to possible attributes of VOI, WHO says VOC attributes include: increased transmissibility; more severe disease (increased hospitalizations or deaths); increased resistance to one or more class of therapies; significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination; reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines or diagnostic detection failures; reduced vaccine-induced protection from severe disease
WHO reports say these variants share one specific mutation called D614G. This mutation was one of the first documented in the US in the initial stages of the pandemic, after having initially circulated in Europe. The global health body says there is evidence that variants with this mutation spread more quickly than viruses without this mutation
Virus Variants Vs Vaccinations (VVV)
Medical reports say most viral mutations have little to no impact on the virus’s ability to cause infections and disease. But, depending on where the changes are located in the virus’s genetic material, they may affect a virus’s properties, such as transmission (it may spread more or less easily) or severity (it may cause more or less severe disease).
But, according to WHO, the vaccines in development or approved are supposed to elicit a broad immune response involving a range of antibodies and cells and therefore are expected to provide some protection against the new virus variants.
Changes or mutations in the virus should not make vaccines completely ineffective. However, with VOI and VOC, efficacy of treatment including vaccination faces serious variants tests.
WHO says, in the event that any of these vaccines prove to be less effective against one or more variants, it will be possible for manufacturers to change the composition of the vaccines to protect against these variants.
The assurance from the global health body is that WHO in collaboration with researchers, health officials and scientists will continue to collect and analyze data on new variants of the COVID-19 virus in order to understand how these variants affect the virus’s behaviour, including their impact on the effectiveness of vaccines,
While we are learning more on the impact of the variants on the virus behavior, WHO says we need to do everything possible to stop the spread of the virus in order to prevent mutations that may reduce the efficacy of existing vaccines. According to the WHO report, manufacturers and the programmes using the vaccines may have to adjust to the evolution of the COVID-19 virus: for example, vaccines may need to incorporate more than one strain when in development, booster shots may be required, and other vaccine changes may be needed.
“Trials must also be designed and maintained to allow any changes in efficacy to be assessed, and must be of sufficient scale and diversity to enable clear interpretation of results” says WHO.
WHO Interventions on Virus Variants Vs Vaccinations (VVV)
– Tracking mutations and variants since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak.
– Global SARS-CoV-2 laboratory network with a dedicated Virus Evolution Working Group, which aims to detect new changes quickly and assess their possible impact.
-Researching genomic sequencing of the Covid-19 virus and sharing sequences on public databases and recommending to all countries to increase sequencing of the virus.
-Establishment of a SARS-CoV-2 Risk Monitoring and Evaluation Framework to identify, monitor and assess variants of concern
Preventing future new variants of the COVID-19 virus.
Stop the spread from the source by:
-Frequent hand washing
-Wearing a mask
-Physical distancing
-Good ventilation
-Avoid crowded places
We must continue to work against new variants by reducing the amount of viral transmission and therefore also reducing opportunities for the virus to mutate.
There is need to scale up vaccine manufacturing and rolling out vaccines as quickly and widely as possible. This is one of the critical ways of protecting people before they are exposed to the virus and the risk of new variants.
Priority should be given to vaccinating high-risk groups everywhere to maximize global protection against new variants and minimize the risk of transmission.
Ensuring equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines, WHO says is more critical than ever to address the evolving pandemic. As more people get vaccinated, we expect virus circulation to decrease, which will then lead to fewer mutations.
Get Vaccinated; Don’t Lower the Guard, as infection may come after Vaccination
There have been reported cases of infection after vaccination. Medical experts say we must not rip off the mask after vaccination. The center for disease control and Prevention (CDC), among others, say, the first jab of the vaccine gives about 50% immunity, while the second shot, given three to four weeks later, offers about 95% immunity. And that it will likely take another week or two for maximum protection from the jabs, which means you’re still vulnerable for a period of time after you’ve been fully immunized.
Apart from the above, CDC says, you are also protecting others when you continue to observe Covid-19 protocols. This is because it’s possible that you can transmit the virus to others after vaccination. So yes, you should still wear a mask, practice social distancing, and frequently wash your hands even after you’ve been vaccinated.
I personally think it would be foolish of us all to ignore this fact. We have to be on our guards in Africa.
As many believe, God as vindicated us as diseases in the past have been said to originate from Africa. Also, the Black race has often suffered the stigma of being second class citizens whenever we may be.
Therefore, it is imperative for us to keep on taking all precautions. I just heard of friends who have lost wives, family members and loved ones in Abuja and victims of same in Lagos.
While we sympathize with those who are gone, we must recognize our obligations to keep safe and to consider others safety as well.